Analyzing impact Dickerson will have on Pirates’ lineup
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The Pittsburgh Pirates bolstered their lineup 无毛视频� and their potential to increase upon a second-worst in MLB 151 home runs in 2017 无毛视频� by acquiring slugger Corey Dickerson. He of the 51 combined dingers over the past two seasons, Dickerson instantly transforms the Pirates无毛视频� lineup from one looking to replicate Andrew McCutchen无毛视频檚 lost production to one that more closely resembles a legitimately powerful lineup.
Of course, Dickerson无毛视频檚 power contributions will not materialize in a vacuum. Dickerson will exchange 81 games at Tropicana Field for a half-season at PNC Park, and the effects a change in scenery might have on his power stroke cannot be discarded completely.
Will his left handed power still play at PNC Park, as many suspect?
In 2017, hitters launched 198 home runs at The Trop agnostic of batter handedness, giving the venue a ranking of 20th among the 30 parks in Major League Baseball. PNC came in at 29th with 154 Bowser and non-Bowser blasts.
If we limit our findings to left-handed hitters, the tale is largely the same. 62 home runs were launched in Pittsburgh from southpaw bats, the 28th highest total.
On the surface, it would seem that PNC Park has earned its reputation. However, Pirates GM Neal Huntington feels differently as evidenced by his comments to reporters 无毛视频� including The Athletic无毛视频檚 Rob Biertempfel 无毛视频� that the front office is aware of the supposed benefits facing left-handed hitters in Pittsburgh.
无毛视频淚 can无毛视频檛 say we go out of our way to find left-handed power,无毛视频� Huntington said. 无毛视频淏ut we certainly are cognizant of the advantage left-handed power can have in our park and we do try to find it when it无毛视频檚 available.无毛视频�
Huntington is referencing the relatively short 无毛视频� 320 feet 无毛视频� porch in PNC Park无毛视频檚 right field. Laying opposite the cavernous left field that gives way to a unique left-center alley, the Clemente Wall is a warm and inviting locale for left handed power hitters to do what they do best 无毛视频� pull the ball and deposit it into the seats.
A quick look at a three-year spray chart of home runs hit at PNC Park (encapsulating the 2015 through 2017 seasons) shows that left-handed hitters do highly prefer this method.
Many of these dingers weren无毛视频檛 exactly Giancarlo Stantonesque screamers, with plenty of home runs seen with a more modest exit velocity. Further, the aforementioned wall is not much of a hindrance, as the 28.6 degree average launch angle for a home run from a left-handed hitter to PNC无毛视频檚 right field would suggest. That figure is well within the accepted 25-35 degree 无毛视频渟weet spot无毛视频� for home runs, but not necessarily extreme.
Perhaps Huntington was half-right. While PNC Park does seem to carry a reputation as a prickly place to hit a home run overall, left-handed hitters clearly have a path to maintain their power numbers at the very least, especially in light of the emphasis placed on launch angles in today无毛视频檚 game.
Other metrics may actually paint a similar picture.
Baseball Prospectus publishes 无毛视频減ark factors无毛视频� for each MLB venue on a variety of batted balls 无毛视频� ground balls, flies, singles, doubles and home runs 无毛视频� and splits those factors out for left and right handed hitters. The result is a ranking of 60 sets of factors (two for each venue 无毛视频� one for left and one for right handed batters) across all of baseball无毛视频檚 venues. For reference, each factor is set so that a score of 100 is considered 无毛视频渁verage.无毛视频�
If we limit our search through these park-based HR factors to left handed hitters only 无毛视频� a noble endeavor as we are attempting to determine how well Dickerson无毛视频檚 power will translate to PNC Park 无毛视频� Tropicana Field ranks as the 27th best ballpark for left-handed power hits with an HR factor of 89. PNC Park ranks higher, but is closer to the middle of the pack. With a 21st highest ranking due to a HR factor of 96 for left-handed hitters, BP无毛视频檚 data may prove Huntington无毛视频檚 assessment to be correct after all.
Dickerson will still have to shake off the step backwards that he took in 2017无毛视频檚 second half, in which his wOBA (weighted on base average, a widely adopted method to measure offense per plate appearance) dropped down to .290 from his .376 first-half figure and his ISO (isolated power, taken when subtracting one无毛视频檚 batting average from his slugging percentage) also dipped 69 points to .167.
Though it may be a lot to ask at this point in his career, Dickerson would also greatly benefit from a drop in strikeout rate. A modest decrease from his 24.2 percent rate could mean a multitude of better pitches to tee off on. If he can get ahead in the count, the berth across Dickerson无毛视频檚 wOBA is quite wide. When ahead over the past two seasons, the 28 year old carries a .493 wOBA, against a .234 rate when he falls behind. That is a 259 point swing.
If we contrast that to MLB-wide rates over the past two years, we see a 212 point difference in wOBA when hitters are ahead of the count versus when they are behind (.225 wOBA for MLB when behind, .437 when ahead).
Getting ahead in the count simply means more to Dickerson than others.
A myriad of other factors could be presented to illustrate how Dickerson can or cannot replicate his power production from 2017.
Playing 81 games at PNC Park, while still significant, is clearly not as much of a factor as one may initially believe.
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