Odds on Steelers’ 1st pick
You probably have colleagues and friends like mine, always looking for that big, easy score. So you have to watch what you say.
Like that day in the media room last September when someone asked me for the line on the big high-school girls soccer game that night.
Norwin, ranked No. 1 in the nation but injured and playing in fits and spurts, was up against rival Penn-Trafford, which was healthy, underrated, playing at home, and really, really hongry.
无毛视频淧ick 无毛视频檈m,无毛视频� I said to surprise the questioner with my insight.
无毛视频淕ive me five grand on Norwin,无毛视频� came the immediate and equally surprising response.
Talk about fits and spurts, I was lucky to get out of that room without having bet $5,000 against my own daughter无毛视频檚 team.
Like I said, you have to watch what you say.
But I only give you this sordid tale 无毛视频� Penn-Trafford, by the way, pulled off the shocking upset 无毛视频� to preface this column. In it, I hope to surprise with insight not seen in the 147,329,644 mock drafts you无毛视频檝e already perused this offseason. But I also can无毛视频檛 get hammered by someone waiting in the weeds for his or her big score.
That said, I present the odds on which player becomes the Steelers无毛视频� first pick in the 2018 NFL draft:
Genard Avery, ILB, Memphis (20-1) 无毛视频� Four off-the-ball linebackers haven无毛视频檛 been drafted in the first round since five were taken in 2000. Could five go this year?
Avery is my puncher无毛视频檚 roundhouse, and in fact becomes more lively should the Steelers trade back into the second round. I initially pondered Fred Warner as the potential fifth ILB, because of his coverage skills, but if Rashaan Evans can go in the first round as a run-downs player with coverage upside, so can Avery.
The two are similar in that both were moved from defensive end (Avery more recently) and present the Steelers with a Levon Kirkland type of projection to ILB. But, Avery and Evans aren无毛视频檛 really similar athletically. Avery (6-0 1/2, 248) tested much better, and he ran his 40 in 4.59, which compares more closely to Ray Lewis (6-0 1/2, 235), who ran a 4.58 coming out.
Avery showed off explosiveness and agility at both the NFL Combine and on tape, and like Evans can rush the passer on third down instead of always coming off the field. The Steelers do need a run-stuffer, unless you无毛视频檝e forgotten their last game when their once-proud 3-4 base was forced to stay on the field by the Jacksonville coaching staff. Has their base become a weakness?
An alignment other teams will force the Steelers into? Think about that and tradition and Levon Kirkland while you无毛视频檙e mulling over whether to throw $10 at a potential $200 score.
Tremaine Edmunds, ILB, Virginia Tech (18-1) 无毛视频� No one will take this, presuming the stud will be long gone, but he无毛视频檚 on the board just in case teams turn away from his raw tape and the fact he无毛视频檚 not even 20 years old.
Derrius Guice, RB, LSU (15-1) 无毛视频� People who keep telling me how smart they are and how many sources they have in NFL personnel offices keep trying to give me this guy. And you know what else they do? They laugh right into my face when I say Le无毛视频橵eon Bell already has a competent backup in Stevan Ridley.
Yeah, right into my face. But hah yourself because we in Pittsburgh know better: The Steelers aren无毛视频檛 drafting a running back in the first round. Go ahead and make your stab at the food on my family无毛视频檚 table, but it无毛视频檚 a sucker bet.
Quarterback, QB, QB U (13-1) 无毛视频� You can note that the odds here are meant to honor the great Dan Marino, since this history lesson is too fitting to ignore.
The current Steelers无毛视频� quarterback situation mirrors that of 1983 when Terry Bradshaw announced he would play five more years before a playoff loss, and the 无毛视频渞oom无毛视频� was already packed with three quality 无毛视频� or thought-to-be quality 无毛视频� quarterbacks and none needed to apply.
However it happened that Bradshaw无毛视频檚 career came to a screeching halt matters little. What matters is that Dan Rooney used the situation and the thinking involved as a grave warning 21 years later when Bill Cowher wanted to draft a guard instead of Ben Roethlisberger.
That warning was heeded then, and should be heeded now, or at least examined. Problem is, the better of the two QB candidates, Lamar Jackson, is just too good to last until pick 28. If Jackson somehow falls, then this becomes serious. It无毛视频檚 highly doubtful he falls, and that leaves a guy I like a lot, Mason Rudolph, to become the sixth 无毛视频� the Marino 无毛视频� quarterback candidate in the first round. Six quarterbacks haven无毛视频檛 been drafted in the first round since 无毛视频�83. And even though Mike Tomlin and Kevin Colbert made a rare, rare trip to Stillwater, Oklahoma, to meet with Rudolph a second time, I have my doubts that things would get serious if the Steelers are staring at him when their turn comes. I would, though, love to watch heads explode all around town if they did draft him.
Ronnie Harrison, S/Da无毛视频橰on Payne, DT, Alabama (12-1) 无毛视频� Two for the price of one from the Nick Saban stable. Harrison无毛视频檚 name is rarely mentioned anymore since the FS-SS-slot safety-LB hybrid ran a 4.63 40 at the Combine. But he just turned 21, is 6-2 with long arms, can tackle, cover, and shows the versatility required of a reserve for a team that doesn无毛视频檛 have an immediate opening in its secondary. Payne is also 21, versatile, strong, fast, but plays a position that无毛视频檚 well stocked. I only included him because I know the Steelers like him and have recently hired his college position coach.
Isaiah Wynn, OT-OG, Georgia (11-1) 无毛视频� The Steelers don无毛视频檛 need a starting offensive lineman, and the interior has at least one starter-ready reserve. But what happens if a tackle gets hurt? Are you sure about Jerald Hawkins? And Hawkins isn无毛视频檛 guard-capable. In fact, they don无毛视频檛 have a tackle-guard who majors in tackle. Wynn, though, represents a championship-level swing tackle as well as a starting guard in case of injury.
Cornerback (10-1) 无毛视频� Boy, I无毛视频檓 being generous this year with another entire position listed with double-digit odds. The primary reason is that I can无毛视频檛 figure out whether Josh Jackson, Isaiah Oliver, Mike Hughes or Jaire Alexander will be the one to fall to 28.
You know, this group could无毛视频檝e been a lot more useful to the Steelers in the past 20 drafts or so when they were actually looking for cornerbacks. But they无毛视频檙e seemingly well-stocked now. It无毛视频檚 just that this position has so much quality in the late first-round area that it has to be a consideration.
Leighton Vander Esch, ILB, Boise State (8-1) 无毛视频� The last two first-round picks 无毛视频� T.J. Watt and Artie Burns 无毛视频� were both 8-1 shots. Vander Esch would be the Steelers无毛视频� pick if he lasts, but I don无毛视频檛 that happening. The speedbumps in the way are the Dallas Cowboys at 19, the Los Angeles Rams at 23 and the Tennessee Titans at 25. That无毛视频檚 too many speedbumps to give the Steelers much optimism.
Rashaan Evans, ILB, Alabama (7-1) 无毛视频� If it weren无毛视频檛 for Mike Mayock moving Evans ahead of Vander Esch in his latest rankings, I would list Evans as the big, fat favorite because ILB is the only position in the Steelers无毛视频� lineup with an Open For Business sign. But Mayock gets good info from NFL personnel sources, and moving a guy having a poor to non-existent workout season ahead of a bigger, faster linebacker who finished his season as strongly as Vander Esch did tells me Mayock knows something.
Perhaps Evans didn无毛视频檛 work out in order to get the Heath Miller treatment by teams that give him a better chance of winning the Super Bowl as a rookie. I could respect that. But my guess is that someone else needs a buck inside type with edge potential on pass downs, and told Mayock about it.
Jessie Bates, FS, Wake Forest (6-1) 无毛视频� I无毛视频檓 not expecting much action at these odds, but the gnawing in my gut that this is the guy just won无毛视频檛 go away. Bates told me at the Combine that he not only met with Tomlin and Colbert, but Art Rooney II as well. And then Tomlin and Colbert made a trip to Winston-Salem to dine with Bates the night before his pro day.
The Wake campus is just not a normal stop on their Alabama-Florida State-LSU-Miami-Virginia Tech-Ohio State circuit. They love going to those football bastions every year, if for nothing else but the atmosphere. Last year they jumped out to Madison, Wisconsin, and did in fact draft Watt. And this year, Bates is the best center fielder in the draft. He无毛视频檚 not a great tackler, but he无毛视频檚 similar to Eric Weddle in a lot of ways. And if the Steelers don无毛视频檛 draft Bates at 28, I see someone around 37 无毛视频� where Weddle went in 2007 无毛视频� selecting this redshirt sophomore.
Justin Reid, S, Stanford (4-1) 无毛视频� He might not be a center fielder 无毛视频� which is what the Steelers lack more than anything else in their secondary 无毛视频� but Reid would help sooner than would Bates, because Reid, as a top reserve, could learn center field on pass downs when they move Morgan Burnett to linebacker; or, Reid could step in on sub-packages for a game with a strong man-coverage plan; or, Reid could learn strong safety and become the playmaker at the position that every Steelers Super Bowl entrant has had.
One question the Steelers would never ask Reid is this: Will you kneel in support of your blacklisted older brother? I really doubt brass cares about his politics, but they certainly don无毛视频檛 want to roil this topic after it无毛视频檚 been settled by the leaders of the locker room. However, the kid can play.
Jim Wexell is the publisher of SteelCityInsider.net.