Handicapping an unpredictable draft
The Jabrill Peppers news yesterday knocked me for a bit of a loop.
Peppers was someone whom I believed could give the Pittsburgh Steelers what the great Troy Polamalu gave them.
But then, shouldn无毛视频檛 Peppers act like Polamalu?
Hey, for all I know, Peppers无毛视频� failed NFL Combine drug test 无毛视频� his 无毛视频渄iluted sample无毛视频� 无毛视频� was what the player says it was: an overhydration after flying in from the coast and preparing for two different positional workouts. But I have no way of knowing the truth.
I want to believe 无毛视频� after all I无毛视频檝e read about Peppers 无毛视频� that he truly is a serious football player, because that无毛视频檚 part of his allure. While linebackers aren无毛视频檛 drafted for their dispositions and, Reuben Foster can squabble with all the hospital workers he wants, and Tim 无毛视频淪mokey无毛视频� Williams can go ahead and light it up, Peppers is a future team leader. He has to act like one.
So that无毛视频檚 part of the reason my predictive foundation has been shaken this year. I agree with what Steelers General Manager Kevin Colbert said Monday, that this draft is 无毛视频渦npredictable, more so than in the past.无毛视频�
With that in mind, as I take to writing my annual Draft Odds column, I recommend bettors choosing the field this year. It无毛视频檚 where I无毛视频檓 placing several qualified candidates in order to whittle this massive list of candidates.
The field this year includes strong candidates such as Marlon Humphrey, Adoree Jackson, Derek Barnett, Jarrad Davis, Haason Reddick and Tyus Bowser because I have reason to believe those players will already have been drafted.
I无毛视频檓 also throwing safeties Budda Baker and Obi Melifonwu in the field.
Melifonwu just plays too tall for a DB, in my opinion. Of course, I thought the same about Kam Chancellor when he came out, and learned later that Mike Tomlin wanted to draft Chancellor. Apparently there无毛视频檚 no DB too tall for Tomlin, and that provides hope for the dear Obi Wan Kenobi.
As for Baker, he fits the needed slot-corner spot perfectly. But I believe he无毛视频檚 too small for Steelers first-round parameters.
Speaking of parameters 无毛视频� and I know Tomlin said Monday the Steelers don无毛视频檛 have any disqualifying parameters 无毛视频� I无毛视频檓 throwing CB Tre无毛视频橠avious White into the field as well. For a team that didn无毛视频檛 have enough cornerbacks with man-coverage ability last season, I无毛视频檓 eliminating cornerbacks with shuttle times of 4.25 or greater. That rules out White and later-round hopefuls Cordrea Tankersley, Sidney Jones, Jourdan Lewis, Brian Allen, Rasul Douglas and Nate Hairston.
I无毛视频檒l also rule out Takk McKinley, the pass-rusher who played for Tom Bradley at UCLA. Bradley is no doubt a great source for the Steelers. His brother Jim Bradley is their orthopedic surgeon and McKinley is out with a shoulder injury. But a Steelers source told me at the Combine that an injured player won无毛视频檛 be chosen to back up their 39-year-old linebacker. That source wasn无毛视频檛 Colbert or Tomlin, but I无毛视频檓 running with it.
Throw the Sack-A-Takk into the field and let无毛视频檚 set those odds at 4-1.
As for the rest, good luck. I hope you hit a longshot.
David Njoku, TE, Miami (10-1) 无毛视频� Talk about sprinting to the podium, I think Ben Roethlisberger will skip there if this player is available. For all of Njoku无毛视频檚 rawness at his position, he无毛视频檚 a certifiable offensive threat and would greatly improve the Steelers in the red zone. After the catch, Njoku is a big running back in the open field. But he can无毛视频檛 possibly fall to 30, can he? Seemingly every mock has him falling but I refuse to believe it can actually happen.
Corey Davis, WR, Western Michigan (9-1) 无毛视频� No, Njoku won无毛视频檛 fall, according to analyst Josh Norris, who无毛视频檚 in touch with plenty of personnel men. But Norris is predicting Davis will be available. Davis is a guy whom I called during the season 无毛视频渁 bigger, faster Hines Ward.无毛视频� That, of course, is Davis无毛视频� ceiling, and his floor is probably Jordan Matthews, who was chosen in the second round in 2014 by Philadelphia. The reasoning behind a potential fall to pick 30 is that Davis underwent ankle surgery after the season and hasn无毛视频檛 been able to work out. But the Steelers proved with Heath Miller that they can trust their eyeballs with just tape and still hit home runs. Even with Martavis Bryant back, the Steelers wouldn无毛视频檛 be able to pass on this talented receiver.
T.J. Watt, OLB, Wisconsin (8-1) 无毛视频� Yes, the drafting of Watt would be more about potential rather than instant help, but at least he无毛视频檒l be healthy from the start. Watt has the frame to add weight and the passion for the game to become an outstanding all-around edge player. The problem is that Dallas and Green Bay have the same need and are picking in front of the Steelers.
Charles Harris, DE, Missouri (7-1) 无毛视频� He无毛视频檚 supposed to be picked earlier, but perhaps the league will find the same hesitancy with Harris that I do. I do see the pass-rush power, and his near exact Jarvis Jones-like workout numbers were improved upon at his pro day. But I have a hunch Davis could slip to the Steelers and cause a decision. After all, Missouri does churn out quality pass-rushers. And these odds are tempting.
Chidobe Awuzie, CB, Colorado (13-2) 无毛视频� The perfect fit for what ails the Steelers in the slot. 无毛视频淭he Cheetah无毛视频� can cover and hit and perhaps even give them some dime linebacker on third-and-long. But I haven无毛视频檛 heard boo out of the Steelers concerning this guy.
Jabrill Peppers, Slot CB, Michigan (6-1) 无毛视频� Even a better fit in the slot. Of course, people have cast so many stones at Peppers for being an undeserving Heisman finalist that an overrated player has now become underrated. Yes, he has some bad tape in deep coverage, but he also carried extra weight in order to help his team as a linebacker. He still ran the same 40 time at 213 pounds as Sean Davis ran at 201. Yes, Peppers intercepted only one pass in his two years as a starting linebacker, but that无毛视频檚 how many former UCLA linebacker Carnell Lake had in three years. Peppers shows great hands, instincts and intermediate coverage skills that can no doubt be improved at a lighter weight, and with coaching and reps. In my opinion, he无毛视频檚 a championship player 无毛视频� if drug free. His strike, even if undeserving, will now put him into the NFL无毛视频檚 testing protocol. If the Steelers know him and trust his explanation, that strike may never grow. And just to be clear, I haven无毛视频檛 read where anyone has compared Peppers to Polamalu as a player. It无毛视频檚 a generality, a typecast. Peppers has that kind of playmaking potential and that kind of leadership. He无毛视频檚 an 无毛视频渋t无毛视频� player who would help opening day as a return specialist and dime linebacker while learning the critical slot position behind Will Gay.
Carl Lawson, DE, Auburn (5-1) 无毛视频� Tomlin无毛视频檚 words to Lawson at his pro day haunt me everytime I try to put him in the second round: 无毛视频淚 need you to rush the passer.无毛视频� Lawson isn无毛视频檛 going to drop into coverage, and, hey, that无毛视频檚 what I无毛视频檝e been hoping the Steelers would realize, because they barely play a 3-4 anymore.
Derek Rivers, DE, Youngstown State (4-1) 无毛视频� Better times and measurements than Lawson, better run defender, better history of health. So why did I rank Rivers behind Lawson in my positional analysis? Because Colbert has never drafted a sub D-1 player in the first round. Well, that reason isn无毛视频檛 good enough anymore. When your foundation has been shaken, you go back to your fundamentals. I liked this guy as the favorite right after the Senior Bowl. I无毛视频檓 ending it that way.