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The 2026 primaries likely to shape the Pennsylvania House and Senate

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PennsylvaniaëƵs capitol building in Harrisburg on the morning of Election Day in November 2020. [Amanda Berg / For Spotlight PA]

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HARRISBURG ëƵ This spring, Pennsylvanians will vote in primary elections that will have huge ramifications for the way the state House and Senate look next year.

ThatëƵs why Spotlight PA analyzed all 228 legislative primaries ëƵ many of which are uncontested ëƵ on the May 19 ballot to pinpoint which are the likeliest to be competitive, impactful, or otherwise worth watching.

The general election in November is each legislative chamber. But as in PennsylvaniaëƵs General Assembly, a primary may be the only serious election a candidate faces before winning public office. The attitude and ideology of primary winners can shape what issues the legislature approaches ëƵ from to ëƵ and how the body addresses them.

In Pennsylvania, primaries are open only to , meaning a fraction of a districtëƵs voters can decide the outcome. Each major partyëƵs leaders may also work to avoid contested primaries, to save energy and money for November. Democratic Gov. Josh Shapiro, for instance, described his distaste for primaries in his memoir, noting a past one that ëƵjust sucked, as it always does when you are fighting with your own people and party.ëƵ

But primaries are also powerful, providing a chance for a partyëƵs voters (and well-heeled interest groups) to review the records of sitting elected officials or newcomers seeking office. They are also hard to predict, as each race is unique to its district and candidates.

ëƵWithout a D or an R next to a candidateëƵs name the biggest cue voters use to make their choices is gone, making the choice about some other factors that are less clear,ëƵ said Christopher Borick, a political science professor at Muhlenberg College, in an email to Spotlight PA.

ëƵIncumbency, name recognition, policy positions and individual identities like gender, race and age are all elevated in importance in primaries and how voters prioritize these factors becomes key,ëƵ he added.

State Rep. Bryan Cutler (R., Lancaster), a former House Speaker who took office by primarying an incumbent, added that ëƵthe general idea of facing the electorate, in a primary and general, is what our commonwealth is built on.ëƵ

As leader, he oversaw the passage of the stateëƵs mail voting law, the legislative response to COVID-19, and several budget deals. Those compromises two unsuccessful primary challenges against him, Cutler said. But the job of state representatives, he argued, ëƵis to govern, not get reelected.ëƵ

Read on for more detail about Spotlight PAëƵs rundown of primaries worth monitoring. The list is based on data from past elections and conversations with more than a dozen sources in both major parties, who requested anonymity to candidly discuss races.

Exclusion from this list does not mean a primary race isnëƵt important or wonëƵt be close. As circumstances evolve and Spotlight PA becomes aware of new information, races may be added. Candidate slates are up to date as of noon March 27, though some ballot challenges are ongoing.

Primaries against sitting state lawmakers

Serious primary challenges to incumbents often elicit a mix of frustration and dread in Harrisburg. Victories against sitting officials can embolden interest groups and make lawmakers think twice before making deals on tough issues. A primary loss for an established legislator can also help competitive seats flip from one party to another in the general election.

These dynamics are prominent in the primaries against Republican state Sens. Camera Bartolotta and Chris Gebhard, both of which are expected to include conflict over skill games, one of HarrisburgëƵs thorniest issues.

Skill games are slot-like machines common in bars and convenience stores that exist in a legal gray area. Gebhard of Lebanon County sponsored that skill games supporters oppose, while Washington CountyëƵs Bartolotta has been a vocal critic of the industry. The two incumbents have been by a political group funded by the conservative organization Citizens Alliance of Pennsylvania.

Citizens Alliance has in turn skill games developer and distributor Pace-O-Matic. Citizens Alliance has primary campaigns against incumbents.

Capitol insiders expect Pace-O-Matic and Citizens Alliance to be active in this yearëƵs Senate GOP primaries, although neither group answered Spotlight PAëƵs questions about their efforts or relationship with each other, and there have not yet been enough campaign finance disclosures to assess their spending in the primary.

Both challengers in these races have sought to communicate strong conservative bona fides. GebhardëƵs opponent, professional cowboy Clovis Crane, calls himself ëƵTHE Conservative Republican for District 48ëƵ on his campaign website. BartolottaëƵs, masonry firm owner Albert Buchtan, boasts a ëƵconservative platform and principlesëƵ and decries career politicians.

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Still, Senate Republicans say they are ëƵconfident that Republican primary voters will see through the lies and false narratives.ëƵ

ëƵSpecial interest groups will spend big money and create false narratives for one reason only, their own interest, and Pace-O-Matic and Citizens Alliance are no different,ëƵ Senate Republican campaign committee spokesperson Michael Straw said in a statement to Spotlight PA.

Not every primary centers on ideology.

Judy Trombetta, a Haverford Township commissioner and former legislative staffer, is challenging state Rep. Greg Vitali (D., Delaware), a 33-year incumbent and vocal champion of environmental issues.

Trombetta told Spotlight PA she doesnëƵt differ much from Vitali in terms of the issues. However, she thinks she can bring energy and a fresh perspective to the office. For instance, she argued Vitali should have been more active during last sessionëƵs .

ëƵA good legislator can tackle multiple issues and know the timing is right based upon relationships and conversations,ëƵ she said.

Below are some of the primaries involving state House and Senate incumbents that may be competitive or are otherwise worth watching:

State Senate

State House

Primaries in districts with competitive general elections

The winners in these seats will carry their partyëƵs standard for the November election in key swing districts that will decide who controls the General Assembly next year.

But the high-profile nature of those general election races also makes party leaders reluctant to go through with bruising primaries in these districts, as theyëƵll need all the resources they can muster for November.

ëƵThe last thing in my view that we need is a primary,ëƵ state Sen. Steve Santarsiero, who also chairs the Bucks County Democrats, said at the January meeting to decide on a preferred candidate in the 16th Senate District, according to . Democrats aim to flip the upper chamber for the first time since the ëƵ90s, making this a key race.

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However, the party couldnëƵt agree, and two candidates are competing for the Democratic nomination.

Republicans face a similar situation in the 36th Senate District in northern Lancaster County, which flipped from Republican to Democratic control in a 2025 special election upset. The GOP has blamed its candidate in that race for the loss, and party leaders are gunning to take the seat back to help preserve their majority.

The local party endorsed conservative state Rep. Tom Jones, who called for unity at the time. But others have said an outsider candidate may be a better option, according to . Jones faces a local committee person for the nomination.

Below are some of the key primaries where the winning candidates will face a competitive general election that could help decide control of the General Assembly:

State Senate

State House

Primaries in districts that likely wonëƵt have competitive general elections

The winners in these races probably wonëƵt face formidable challenges in November, which means thereëƵs a good chance theyëƵll be the people representing their districts in Harrisburg.

Because of that context, these primaries can provide some hints about the arguments motivating either partyëƵs base, or which interest groups or factions are gaining power.

Take the 148th House District in the Philadelphia suburbs, where four Democrats are facing off. The candidates range from local officials with years of experience in government to a fresh college graduate whose campaign website promises to bring ëƵenergy, radical transparency, and above all, a necessary sense of urgencyëƵ to governing.

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For Republicans, thereëƵs rural LancasterëƵs 100th House District, which Cutler is vacating after representing it since 2006.

The two GOP candidates, businessman Dave Nissley and retired State Trooper Kelly Osborne, promise conservative governance. However, Osborne, who serves on a local school board, promises ëƵreal conservative results,ëƵ while Nissley, who has never held elected office, promises ëƵservant-based leadership.ëƵ

Below are some of the key primaries (all in the state House) in which the winner will likely face little competition:

BEFORE YOU GOëƵ If you learned something from this article, pay it forward and contribute to Spotlight PA at . Spotlight PA is funded by who are committed to accountability journalism that gets results.

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